Millions of households could end up paying almost £245 a year for a TV licence within the next decade if the latest annual increase continues to be repeated, new analysis suggests.
The annual TV licence fee is already set to rise from £174.50 to £180 from April 1, 2026, adding another £5.50 a year to the cost for households that need a licence.
But if similar inflation-linked increases continue year after year, the annual bill could climb to around £245 by 2036 - almost £65 more than next year's confirmed price.
The projection comes from analysts at Predictionist, who examined TV licence fees over the past decade before modelling what could happen if the latest 3.14% increase continued every year.
How the TV licence fee has climbed
The cost of a colour TV licence has risen steadily over the past 10 years.
In 2015, households paid £145.50 a year, with the fee remaining frozen until 2017.
Since then, the annual charge has increased to:
- 2017: £147
- 2018: £150.50
- 2019: £154.50
- 2020: £157.50
- 2021: £159
- 2022: £159
- 2023: £159
- 2024: £169.50
- 2025: £174.50
- 2026: £180 (confirmed)
That means households will already be paying £34.50 more each year than they were a decade ago.
If future increases follow the latest inflation-linked rise, the annual fee would reach around £245 by 2036, according to the analysis.
Even using a simpler calculation based on the average cash increase over the past decade, the licence fee would still reach around £211 a year.
Why the projections are so much higher
The difference comes down to compound percentage increases.
Rather than rising by a fixed amount each year, the TV licence fee is now linked to inflation under the current funding settlement for the BBC.
That means every increase is applied to a larger figure than the year before, causing costs to build more quickly over time.
While the £5.50 rise from April may not seem dramatic on its own, repeated percentage increases could leave households paying substantially more over the next decade.
What households need to know
The £180 annual TV licence fee is already confirmed from April 1, 2026.
Free TV licences will continue to be available for people aged over 75 who receive Pension Credit, while the Government has also expanded its Simple Payment Plan to help households experiencing severe financial hardship spread the cost.
However, analysts say the longer-term trend highlights how recurring household bills can quietly become much more expensive over time.
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A spokesperson for Predictionist said: "This is not a confirmed future bill, but it shows how quickly a household charge can grow when annual percentage rises keep compounding.
"For viewers, the important thing is not just the next £5.50 increase. It is the direction of travel.
"A few percentage points a year can turn into a much larger bill over a decade, especially when households are already watching every recurring cost."
The projection is based on historic licence fee increases and should not be viewed as a forecast of future Government policy. Future rises will depend on inflation, BBC funding arrangements and decisions made by ministers after the current Charter period ends.
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