The Liberal Democrats have been forecast to retain control of north Shropshire in a new election poll - but with a reduced majority.

Modelling released by YouGov this week suggests that nationally Labour is on course for a landslide win ahead of the country taking to the polls on July 4.

But while Julia Buckley is rated as “likely” to become Shrewsbury’s first Labour MP since 2005 the Conservatives are predicted to hold on to the former Ludlow constituency, now known as South Shropshire, while Liberal Democrat candidate Helen Morgan is forecast to retain her seat in the North Shropshire constituency.

The MRP poll by pollsters YouGov is a sophisticated modelling technique using factors such as gender, age, past voting record, and occupation in order to calculate win probabilities in individual seats.

The poll puts Shrewsbury as a “likely Labour” seat and predict that if the vote were to be held today, Labour would attract 48% of the vote share, versus 28% for the Conservatives in second place. Should it come to pass, it would represent a reversal of the 2019 ballot, which saw Conservative incumbent Daniel Kawczynski take a 52.5% share of the vote and a majority of around 11,000.


Elsewhere, North Shropshire is rated as a “likely Lib Dem” seat, with the polling company predicting that Helen Morgan would hold on to her seat ahead of Conservative rival Simon Baynes with a reduced majority compared to her 2021 by-election success over Neil Shastri-Hurst.

South Shropshire is rated as a “likely Conservative” seat although the Tory majority in the former Ludlow constituency is expected to fall from 2019, when Phillip Dunne gained a 64% vote share, 25,000 votes ahead of Liberal Democrat rival Heather Kidd.

Over the border, polling this week suggested that the new Montgomeryshire and Glyndwr seat which contains both Chirk and Llanfyllin is expected to be won by Conservative Craig Williams.

Nationally the data modelling suggests that Keir Starmer’s Labour Party could win a historic majority of 194 seats, which would surpass the majority of 179 seats that Tony Blair achieved in 1997.

If accurate, Labour is predicted to take 422 seats overall, and the Conservatives will see their number reduced to just 140.

The latest national voting intention poll from YouGov puts Labour on 40%, the Tories on 19%, Reform UK on 17%, the Liberal Democrats on 10% and the Greens on 7%.