Eyes of the nation fall on North Shropshire as poll looms

Voters head to the polls in this traditionally safe Conservative seat on Thursday with they eyes of the nation upon them, and a Prime Minister under pressure praying that they do not – as has been suggested – turn their backs on his leadership.

At the 2019 General Election, Owen Paterson took nearly two thirds of the vote to sweep to an entirely predictable victory.

Even after three General Elections in just over four years, few would have expected to be going to the polls again so soon, yet schools, churches and community halls will be digging out the ballot boxes again this Thursday.

Major party leaders have come and gone in an attempt to woo the North Shropshire electorate – with Boris Johnson visiting Oswestry with Neil Shastri-Hurst last month to support his candidate.

Promises of better transport links – dualling the A5, completing the Pant-Llanymynech bypass, reconnecting Oswestry to the national railway network – have been among the pledges from each party. Transport Secretary Grant Shapps visited last week to talk up the Tories’ transport plans.

But it increasingly appears that this is a by-election that is being played out on national issues, and with national consequences.

The bookies have installed the Liberal Democrats as unlikely favourites to the land the seat, which in its different forms has been either Conservative or Unionist for almost all of its 200-year history.

Clockwise from top left, Neil Shastri-Hurst (Con); Duncan Kerr (Green); Ben Wood (Lab); Kirsty Walmsley (Reform); Russell Dean (Party Party); and Helen Morgan (Lib Dem).

But Labour, who have come second in the last three votes for the seat, have continued to present a challenge, with deputy leader Angela Rayner heading to the constituency on Tuesday to support candidate Ben Wood as the battle went to the wire.

And even after talk of an upset, it would still represent a huge shock were the Conservatives to lose such a safe seat.

Among the 14 candidates on the ballot paper if Kirsty Walmsley, representing the Reform Party which emerged from the Brexit Party set up by Nigel Farage, and Oswestry’s Green Party leader Duncan Kerr.

Former environment secretary Mr Paterson quit after he was found to have breached lobbying rules, and after the Government U-turned in a bid to save him from immediate Commons suspension.

Education Secretary Nadhim Zahawi said by-elections are sometimes used to “send a message”, in what will be read as a hint that the Tories think they could lose the contest.

It comes as the Government has been stung by a series of crises in recent weeks.

On top of the sleaze row following the saga involving Mr Paterson, the Prime Minister has been dogged by claims that No 10 broke Covid rules last year by holding a Christmas bash and a festive quiz – a “virtual” event which Downing Street confirmed Boris Johnson took part in “briefly” – in December 2020.

The Conservative Party leader also faces allegations that he misled his ethics adviser over what a controversial refurbishment of his No 11 flat.

Speaking to Times Radio about the Tory prospects in North Shropshire, Mr Zahawi said: “By-elections have historically been used as a protest vote because people know it’s not going to change the outcome of which party governs the country but actually they want to send a message for whatever reason.

“I think the people of North Shropshire would be really well-served by Neil Shastri-Hurst – I’m certainly backing him and I hope he wins.”

The odds have been slashed on the Liberal Democrats causing a by-election upset.

Now the nation is watching the North Shropshire polls like never before.

All the runners and riders:

In total there will be 14 runners and riders on the ballot paper when the public goes to the polls in North Shropshire this week.

As well as the traditional mainstream parties – and some that have found success on a national level having come to prominence relatively recently – a number of independent candidates came forward after Owen Paterson’s resignation.

Here’s the list of runners ahead of election date of Thursday:

• Conservatives – Neil Shastri-Hurst
• Labour – Ben Wood
• Liberal Democrats – Helen Morgan
• The Green Party – Duncan Kerr
• Reform UK – Kirsty Walmsle
• Party Party – Russell Dean
• The Monster Raving Loony Party – Alan ‘Howling Laud’ Hope
• Independent – Yolande Kenward
• Reclaim Party – Martin Daubne
• Freedom Alliance The Real Alternative – Earl Elvis Phillippe Jesse
• UKIP – Andrea Christabel-Allen
• Independent – Suzie Akers-Smith
• Rejoin EU – Boris Been-Bunged
• Heritage Party – James Alexander Elliot.

Don't forget, we will be running a live blog throughout polling day and the count tomorrow on our website.