A CHEMICAL engineer from Malpas has explained why a vaccine for COVID-19 is not likely to be created this year.

Keith Plumb, who is a fellow of the Institute of Chemical Engineers (ICHEME) says the typical amount of time it takes to create a vaccine in the first place is part of the issue, but also the UK's lack of provisions for making a vaccine on a large scale.

Keith is part of ICHEME's COVID-19 Response Team, who are currently looking at various ways the virus can be tackled, either through a vaccine, or via effective treatment.

But Keith explains that creating a new industry such as this from scratch is 'slow progress'.

"We are trying to create a new industry and it's going to be a Herculean task," he said.

"We were asked via the Royal Academy of Engineering if there's any way, on a voluntary basis, we could help with COVID-19 – this has proved to be extraordinarily difficult.

"Getting the right people in the government is like driving an ambulance down the M25 in rush hour, it's slow progress.

"The normal process for creating a vaccine is 12 years, and the normal attrition rate is 25,000 to five, so you start with 25,000 candidates [testing animals] and have five to market.

"Once you get to the clinical trial stage, it is around 10 to one.

"I assume you can do it a lot a lot faster than 12 years as there's some push behind it."

Keith explains that as well as being time consuming, actually testing if the vaccine works is hard to accomplish.

"The fundamental issue whit the vaccine is how do you know it works," added Keith.

"The first stage is with a first small number of humans – yes its safe on rats but is it safe to use on people.

"The second stage is give it to small number of people with disease.

"But that doesn't work with a vaccine, as there's no point in giving someone with COVID the vaccine, as it is already too late.

"When Edward Jenner created the smallpox vaccine, he used a local street urchin, gave him the vaccine and gave him smallpox after to see if it worked.

"Doing that nowadays is a problem, you're not going to get many volunteers.

"So you have to do it in vitro, outside body, get some blood and stick the virus in it and see, does it behave the way you expect it to?

"That's the point, the big question is how do you test a vaccine?

"I'm not trying to be a doom monger, if we've got 100 candidates, it means that one might work."

Another issue that arises from the creation of a vaccine, is how to mass produce it.

Currently there are two sites, both in Liverpool, that make season flu vaccines, but Keith says they only operate on a small scale.

"If we have [a vaccine] that works this year, it would be pretty amazing," he added.

"You can do it in the lab, but you have to scale it up and demonstrate it works. Add to the fact nowhere in the UK makes the vaccine we are looking at.

"There's two places that make seasonal flu vaccines, but that's on a small scale.

"The facility to do this, in a pandemic is still being built. It isn't going to be ready in 2020.

"It might all come together, but not this year."

Despite the grim outlook for this year, Keith says it is not his intention to be pessimistic, and he his team are looking at other, more immediate ways of helping tackle the virus.

"It's not that I'm trying to be a pessimist, I'm trying to be a realist," said Keith.

"How do we get out of lockdown is the most immediate issue, we have to look at lots of stuff.

"One thing we've just kicked off as a live project is the decontamination of the masks.

"The standard surgical mask is not actually much better at filtering out a virus than a tea towel, whereas the fancy ones with the filters are 98 per cent effective.

"We're looking at a way of decontaminating these.

"We have this project, we know the process. You use vaporised hydrogen peroxide, which will zapp the virus, which has been demonstrated in the US using US standard masks, so we'll have to demonstrate with our standard of masks."

Keith also says that trying to introduce something directly to the NHS might take too long, and that trials and techniques should be used by other institutions first.

"Getting anything to work in the NHS is hard work," he added. "There's places where we could move faster, such as the army.

"Then we can get charities using it, then the general public, and then we might get it through the NHS."

ICHEME is also looking into ways to treat the virus.

"The vaccine is there to protect against the virus, there are alternative ideas for people who have got the virus," Keith added. "How do we make sure people don't die, and there's a lot of scope in that too.

"In all of these areas we may be able to help."